“Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative histories.It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Just because a pitch you call or play you call doesn’t work out doesn’t make it a poor choice. The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result.Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting.From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful / desirable mate. This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all “puffed up” in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc.One common theory for why people pursue leadership is because of “social emotions” which cause others to be influenced by a person due to small, almost imperceptible physical signals like charisma, gestures, and gait.Wild success is attributable to variance.”

“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor.

“Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.”.

As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous.

“This business of journalism is just about entertainment, particularly when it comes to radio and television.”.

Important point: “it’s more random than we think, not it is all random.” Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for hard work, skills, etc.).

According to Taleb, the book’s most popular chapter was Chapter 11, the one in which he compressed all the literature on the topic of miscalculating probability.

This summary also includes key lessons and important passages from the book. My notes are informal and often contain quotes from the book as well as my own thoughts. This is my book summary of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Mild success can be explainable by skills and hard work, but wild success is usually attributable to variance and luck.

Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then create reasons and patterns for their success even though it was largely random. Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize.

Fool of randomness